2022 - 2023
| F U T R |
2022 is well underway, the phones have not stopped ringing, open homes are crazy, there are lots of registered bidders at auctions and the QLD, NSW borders are in free flow. These are all early indications that buyer demand is strong running into 2022. Having already witnessed a staggering “1,531 sales between January 10th and January 16th “(REA, 2022), now is a great time to speculate and see what the market may have in store for us up until 2023.
Demand looks like it will remain strong, and we believe it will hold for the first half of this year, bolstered by interest rates, easy lending, and interstate migration. There are early indications from the Reserve Bank Australia (RBA) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) that they will make lending more difficult. With inflation set to rise this will force the RBA’s hand into rising the official cash rate leading to higher interest rates for home loans. Ultimately causing demand to ease back in the second half of this calendar year.
2022, will see an increase in supply as homeowners start to realize their capital growth, creating an increase of properties on the market for sale. Combined with an influx of newly built homes according to the Queensland Government Statisticians Office “The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland in November 2021 was 3,581, 20.0% higher than the October 2021 figure”. We believe these two factors will balance the demand and supply scales.
This easing of demand and increase of supply will lead to house/apartment growth to stabilise and possibly flatline heading into the end of this year. This means that if we are not yet at the peak of the market, it is just on the horizon
Why do I care?
Buyers – We recommend that if you plan to hold for the long term (7 years +) the sooner you purchase the more capital growth you will realise. If you are looking for a short term investment/home we recommend staying out of the market or now and waiting.
Sellers – If you are thinking of selling and like to take risks we recommend that you wait, as there may be a little more wiggle room until we hit the peak of the market, 6 months maximum.
If you do not like to take risks then now is the time to sell. Finding a buyer who is happy to have a long settlement, allowing you ample time to find your next home. If you can, find alternative accommodation until the market shifts downwards
